2026 forecast
Statewide offices forecast
Every 2026 partisan statewide race below the top of the ticket: lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, auditor, comptroller, schools superintendent, insurance, labor, land and agriculture commissioners, utility commissions, the elected education boards, the partisan supreme court seats and Texas railroad commissioner, 164 in all, forecast county by county. Democrats are favored in 85 of the 150 contested races and 40 are within 6 points.
Lieutenant governor
10 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Sandra Jauregui vs Stavros Anthony · Anthony is the incumbent | Lean D | D +3.5 | 71% | 1 |
| Texas | Vikki Goodwin vs Dan Patrick · Patrick is the incumbent | Lean R | R +4.0 | 19% | 13 |
| Georgia | Josh McLaurin vs Greg Dolezal | Lean D | D +5.9 | 85% | 1 |
| Vermont | Molly Gray vs John Rodgers · Rodgers is the incumbent | Likely D | D +6.9 | 86% | 3 |
| Rhode Island | Sabina Matos vs John Loughlin · Matos is the incumbent | Safe D | D +12.3 | 99% | 3 |
| Oklahoma | Kelly Forbes vs T. W. Shannon | Safe R | R +20.9 | 0% | 1 |
| California | Fiona Ma vs Gloria Romero | Safe D | D +24.4 | 100% | |
| Idaho | Eric Myricks vs Scott Bedke · Bedke is the incumbent | Safe R | R +27.0 | 0% | |
| Alabama | Phillip Ensler vs John Wahl | Safe R | R +27.9 | 0% | |
| Arkansas | Leslie Rutledge runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested |
Attorney general
30 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Chris Mann vs Kris Kobach · Kobach is the incumbent | Toss up | R +1.1 | 44% | 1 |
| Texas | Nathan Johnson vs Mayes Middleton | Toss up | R +1.1 | 41% | 15 |
| Ohio | John Kulewicz vs Keith Faber | Lean D | D +2.2 | 65% | 2 |
| Iowa | Nate Willems vs Brenna Bird · Bird is the incumbent | Lean D | D +5.9 | 84% | 2 |
| Florida | José Javier Rodríguez vs James Uthmeier · Uthmeier is the incumbent | Likely R | R +6.3 | 13% | 3 |
| Nevada | Nicole Cannizzaro vs Adriana Guzmán Fralick | Likely D | D +7.2 | 87% | 1 |
| Minnesota | Keith Ellison vs Ron Schutz · Ellison is the incumbent | Likely D | D +8.6 | 96% | 7 |
| Michigan | Eli Savit vs Doug Lloyd | Likely D | D +9.2 | 96% | 3 |
| Georgia | Tanya Miller vs Brian Strickland | Likely D | D +9.3 | 95% | |
| Wisconsin | Josh Kaul vs Eric Toney · Kaul is the incumbent | Likely D | D +9.6 | 91% | |
| Arizona | Kris Mayes vs Warren Petersen · Mayes is the incumbent | Likely D | D +10.7 | 98% | 8 |
| Nebraska | Jocelyn Brasher vs Mike Hilgers · Hilgers is the incumbent | Likely R | R +11.4 | 3% | |
| Vermont | Charity Clark vs Ed Kemon · Clark is the incumbent | Safe D | D +13.2 | 97% | |
| South Carolina | Richard Hricik vs David Stumbo | Safe R | R +14.8 | 2% | |
| New York | Letitia James vs Saritha Komatireddy · James is the incumbent | Safe D | D +20.2 | 100% | 2 |
| Colorado | Jena Griswold vs Michael Allen | Safe D | D +22.4 | 100% | |
| Connecticut | William Tong vs John Bolton · Tong is the incumbent | Safe D | D +22.6 | 100% | 1 |
| Oklahoma | Nick Coffey vs Jon Echols | Safe R | R +22.6 | 0% | 1 |
| North Dakota | Tim Lamb vs Drew Wrigley · Wrigley is the incumbent | Safe R | R +23.9 | 0% | |
| Alabama | Jeff McLaughlin vs Katherine Robertson | Safe R | R +24.0 | 0% | 1 |
| Illinois | Kwame Raoul vs Bob Fioretti · Raoul is the incumbent | Safe D | D +24.6 | 100% | 1 |
| New Mexico | Raúl Torrez vs Sam Kane · Torrez is the incumbent | Safe D | D +25.9 | 100% | |
| Idaho | Lori Hickman vs Raúl Labrador · Labrador is the incumbent | Safe R | R +26.7 | 0% | 1 |
| California | Rob Bonta vs Michael Gates · Bonta is the incumbent | Safe D | D +28.0 | 100% | |
| Delaware | Kathy Jennings vs Dave Graham · Jennings is the incumbent | Safe D | D +31.0 | 100% | |
| Rhode Island | Kimberly Ahern vs Alan Gordon | Safe D | D +32.9 | 100% | |
| Massachusetts | Andrea Campbell vs Michael Walsh · Campbell is the incumbent | Safe D | D +36.4 | 100% | 1 |
| Maryland | Anthony Brown vs James Rutledge III · Brown is the incumbent | Safe D | D +42.8 | 100% | |
| Arkansas | Tim Griffin runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested | |||
| South Dakota | Lance Russell runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested |
Secretary of state
26 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Jennifer Day vs Pat Proctor | Toss up | R +0.7 | 46% | 1 |
| Indiana | Beau Bayh vs Max Engling | Toss up | R +1.1 | 43% | 3 |
| Ohio | Allison Russo vs Robert Sprague | Toss up | D +1.3 | 59% | |
| Iowa | Ryan Peterman vs Paul Pate · Pate is the incumbent | Lean D | D +2.3 | 65% | |
| Nebraska | Sarah Slattery vs Scott Petersen | Lean R | R +4.8 | 21% | |
| Georgia | Penny Brown Reynolds vs Tim Fleming | Lean D | D +5.5 | 83% | |
| Wisconsin | JoCasta Zamarripa vs Jay Schroeder | Likely D | D +6.5 | 82% | |
| Nevada | Cisco Aguilar vs Jim Marchant · Aguilar is the incumbent | Likely D | D +9.7 | 94% | 1 |
| South Dakota | Terrence Davis vs Heather Baxter | Likely R | R +10.3 | 9% | |
| Michigan | Garlin Gilchrist vs Anthony Forlini | Likely D | D +10.4 | 98% | 4 |
| Arizona | Adrian Fontes vs Alexander Kolodin · Fontes is the incumbent | Likely D | D +11.7 | 98% | 6 |
| Vermont | Sarah Copeland Hanzas vs H. Brooke Paige · Hanzas is the incumbent | Safe D | D +12.5 | 96% | |
| Minnesota | Steve Simon vs Tad Jude · Simon is the incumbent | Safe D | D +14.8 | 100% | 2 |
| South Carolina | Jason Belton vs Mark Hammond · Hammond is the incumbent | Safe R | R +18.2 | 1% | |
| Arkansas | Kelly Grappe vs Kim Hammer | Safe R | R +19.6 | 0% | 1 |
| Colorado | Amanda Gonzalez vs James Wiley | Safe D | D +20.6 | 100% | |
| North Dakota | Ryan Braunberger vs Michael Howe · Howe is the incumbent | Safe R | R +21.2 | 0% | |
| Connecticut | Stephanie Thomas vs Peter Lumaj · Thomas is the incumbent | Safe D | D +21.6 | 100% | |
| New Mexico | Amanda López Askin vs Ramona Goolsby | Safe D | D +22.5 | 100% | |
| Alabama | Wayne Rogers vs Caroleene Dobson | Safe R | R +23.6 | 0% | |
| Illinois | Alexi Giannoulias vs Diane Harris · Giannoulias is the incumbent | Safe D | D +27.8 | 100% | |
| California | Shirley Weber vs Don Wagner · Weber is the incumbent | Safe D | D +28.3 | 100% | |
| Idaho | Shawn Keenan vs Phil McGrane · McGrane is the incumbent | Safe R | R +28.8 | 0% | |
| Wyoming | Bryan McCarty vs Robert Short | Safe R | R +35.2 | 0% | |
| Massachusetts | William F. Galvin vs Anne Brensley · Galvin is the incumbent | Safe D | D +38.6 | 100% | 1 |
| Rhode Island | Gregg Amore runs without a Republican opponent | Uncontested |
Treasurer
25 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Juan Luengo vs Steven Johnson · Johnson is the incumbent | Lean R | R +2.4 | 36% | |
| Ohio | Seth Walsh vs Jay Edwards | Lean D | D +2.5 | 67% | |
| Florida | Annette Taddeo vs Blaise Ingoglia · Ingoglia is the incumbent | Lean R | R +3.2 | 27% | 5 |
| Wisconsin | Yee Leng Xiong vs John Leiber · Leiber is the incumbent | Lean D | D +3.3 | 68% | |
| Iowa | John Norwood vs Roby Smith · Smith is the incumbent | Lean D | D +5.0 | 79% | |
| Nevada | Tya Mathis-Coleman vs Drew Johnson | Likely D | D +7.8 | 89% | 1 |
| Arizona | Nick Mansour vs Elijah Norton | Likely D | D +10.0 | 96% | 4 |
| Indiana | Coumba Kebe vs Daniel Elliott · Elliott is the incumbent | Likely R | R +10.4 | 6% | 1 |
| South Dakota | Margaret Kuipers vs Melissa Hull | Likely R | R +10.7 | 9% | |
| Nebraska | Daniel Ebers vs Joey Spellerberg · Spellerberg is the incumbent | Likely R | R +11.7 | 2% | |
| Vermont | Mike Pieciak vs Lynn LaFleur · Pieciak is the incumbent | Safe D | D +12.4 | 96% | |
| South Carolina | Vincent Coe vs Curtis Loftis · Loftis is the incumbent | Safe R | R +20.2 | 0% | |
| Colorado | Jeff Bridges vs Kevin Grantham | Safe D | D +20.7 | 100% | |
| Connecticut | Erick Russell vs Fred Wilms · Russell is the incumbent | Safe D | D +21.3 | 100% | |
| New Mexico | Laura Montoya vs Jim Ellison · Montoya is the incumbent | Safe D | D +24.3 | 100% | 1 |
| California | Eleni Kounalakis vs Jennifer Hawks | Safe D | D +25.0 | 100% | |
| Illinois | Mike Frerichs vs Max Solomon · Frerichs is the incumbent | Safe D | D +26.6 | 100% | |
| Delaware | Ted Lauzen vs Mike Ramone | Safe D | D +27.6 | 100% | |
| Idaho | Kevin Jones vs Julie Ellsworth · Ellsworth is the incumbent | Safe R | R +28.5 | 0% | |
| Alabama | Rosilyn Houston vs Young Boozer · Boozer is the incumbent | Safe R | R +32.5 | 0% | |
| Rhode Island | James Diossa vs Micholas Credle · Diossa is the incumbent | Safe D | D +32.7 | 100% | |
| Massachusetts | Deb Goldberg vs Elizabeth Dionne · Goldberg is the incumbent | Safe D | D +38.5 | 100% | 1 |
| Arkansas | John Thurston runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested | |||
| Oklahoma | Cindy Byrd runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested | |||
| Wyoming | Curt Meier runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested |
Auditor
15 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | Annette Blackwell vs Frank LaRose | Lean D | D +2.6 | 67% | |
| Iowa | Taylor Wettach vs Chris Cournoyer | Likely D | D +6.7 | 86% | |
| Minnesota | Zack Filipovich vs Scott Jensen | Likely D | D +7.6 | 92% | 3 |
| Indiana | Jessica Bailey vs Elise Nieshalla · Nieshalla is the incumbent | Likely R | R +8.2 | 11% | 1 |
| Vermont | Tim Ashe vs Ivar Kronick | Likely D | D +9.1 | 90% | |
| South Dakota | Tom Cool vs Catherine Barranco | Likely R | R +10.9 | 8% | |
| Missouri | Quentin Wilson vs Scott Fitzpatrick · Fitzpatrick is the incumbent | Safe R | R +14.3 | 2% | |
| New Mexico | Joseph Maestas vs Joshua Lawrence · Maestas is the incumbent | Safe D | D +24.5 | 100% | 1 |
| Delaware | Lydia York vs April Callaway · York is the incumbent | Safe D | D +31.1 | 100% | |
| Alabama | Violet Edwards vs Andrew Sorrell · Sorrell is the incumbent | Safe R | R +32.8 | 0% | |
| Arkansas | Dennis Milligan runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested | |||
| Massachusetts | Diana DiZoglio runs without a Republican opponent | Uncontested | |||
| Nebraska | Mike Foley runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested | |||
| Oklahoma | Melissa Capps runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested | |||
| Wyoming | Kristi Racines runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested |
Agriculture commissioner
7 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Chris Jones vs Mike Naig · Naig is the incumbent | Toss up | D +1.3 | 59% | 2 |
| Texas | Clayton Tucker vs Nate Sheets | Lean R | R +2.1 | 32% | 6 |
| Georgia | Katherine Juhan-Arnold vs Tyler Harper · Harper is the incumbent | Lean D | D +2.8 | 68% | |
| Florida | Joey Mendoza Atkins vs Wilton Simpson · Simpson is the incumbent | Likely R | R +10.4 | 5% | 1 |
| South Carolina | DeShawn Blanding vs Cody Simpson | Safe R | R +16.6 | 1% | |
| North Dakota | Vern Thompson vs Doug Goehring · Goehring is the incumbent | Safe R | R +23.1 | 0% | |
| Alabama | Ron Sparks vs Corey Hill | Safe R | R +30.1 | 0% |
Railroad commissioner
1 race| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Jon Rosenthal vs Bo French | Toss up | R +0.6 | 45% | 9 |
Comptroller
10 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Michael MacDougall vs Andy Matthews · Matthews is the incumbent | Lean D | D +3.9 | 72% | |
| Texas | Sarah Eckhardt vs Don Huffines · Huffines is the incumbent | Lean R | R +4.8 | 14% | 8 |
| Indiana | Jessica Bailey vs Elise Nieshalla · Nieshalla is the incumbent | Likely R | R +11.3 | 6% | |
| South Carolina | Tiffany Boozer vs Mike Burkhold | Safe R | R +16.1 | 1% | |
| Connecticut | Sean Scanlon vs Jennifer S. Tooker · Scanlon is the incumbent | Safe D | D +21.6 | 100% | |
| New York | Tom DiNapoli vs Joseph Hernandez · DiNapoli is the incumbent | Safe D | D +22.2 | 100% | 2 |
| Illinois | Margaret Croke vs Bryan Drew | Safe D | D +24.3 | 100% | |
| California | Malia Cohen vs Herb Morgan · Cohen is the incumbent | Safe D | D +25.3 | 100% | 1 |
| Idaho | Rakesh Mohan vs Brandon Woolf · Woolf is the incumbent | Safe R | R +28.0 | 0% | |
| Maryland | Brooke Lierman vs Sonya Dunn · Lierman is the incumbent | Safe D | D +42.8 | 100% |
Land commissioner
2 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Benjamin Flores vs Dawn Buckingham · Buckingham is the incumbent | Lean R | R +4.2 | 18% | 3 |
| New Mexico | Juan Sanchez vs Michael Perry | Safe D | D +22.6 | 100% |
Schools superintendent
6 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Lydia Catalina Powell vs Richard Woods · Woods is the incumbent | Lean D | D +3.0 | 70% | |
| Arizona | Teresa Leyba Ruiz vs Kimberly Yee | Likely D | D +9.8 | 95% | 4 |
| South Carolina | Sylvia Wright vs Ellen Weaver · Weaver is the incumbent | Safe R | R +18.9 | 0% | |
| Oklahoma | Jennettie Marshall vs Robert Franklin | Safe R | R +22.3 | 0% | |
| Idaho | Becky Sundin Mitchell vs Debbie Critchfield · Critchfield is the incumbent | Safe R | R +27.6 | 0% | |
| Wyoming | Ana Cordova vs Steve Harshman | Safe R | R +36.7 | 0% |
Insurance commissioner
4 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas | Dinah Sykes vs Dan Hawkins | Toss up | D +0.7 | 54% | |
| Georgia | Keisha Sean Waites vs John King · King is the incumbent | Lean D | D +3.0 | 70% | |
| Oklahoma | Craig MacIntyre vs Bob Sullivan | Safe R | R +22.3 | 0% | |
| California | Jane Kim runs without a Republican opponent | Uncontested |
Labor commissioner
2 racesUtility commission
9 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia · District 5 | Shelia Edwards vs Josh Tolbert | Lean D | D +5.5 | 83% | 1 |
| Georgia · District 3 | Peter Hubbard vs Fitz Johnson · Hubbard is the incumbent | Likely D | D +8.1 | 92% | 1 |
| Arizona | Clara Pratte and Jonathon Hill vs Kevin Thompson and Ralph Heap · Myers is the incumbent | Likely D | D +9.7 | 93% | |
| South Dakota | Frank Kloucek vs Don Haggar | Likely R | R +10.5 | 9% | |
| Oklahoma | Rhonda Eastman vs Brad Boles | Safe R | R +22.3 | 0% | |
| North Dakota · Six-year term | John Pederson vs Sheri Haugen-Hoffart · Haugen-Hoffart is the incumbent | Safe R | R +22.9 | 0% | |
| North Dakota · Two-year unexpired term | Scot Kelsh vs Jill Kringstad · Kringstad is the incumbent | Safe R | R +22.9 | 0% | |
| Alabama · Place 1 | James O. Gordon vs Matt Gentry · Oden is the incumbent | Safe R | R +30.7 | 0% | |
| Alabama · Place 2 | Sheila McNeil vs Jim Zeigler · III is the incumbent | Safe R | R +30.7 | 0% |
Mine inspector
1 race| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Brian Matlock vs Walter "Les" Presmyk · Presmyk is the incumbent | Likely D | D +9.8 | 94% |
Education board
4 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan · University of Michigan Board of Regents | Paul Brown and Amir Makled vs Lena Epstein and Michael Schostak | Safe D | D +14.2 | 99% | |
| Michigan · Wayne State University Board of Governors | Shereef Akeel and Richard Mack vs Andy Anuzis and Christa Murphy | Safe D | D +14.2 | 99% | |
| Michigan · Michigan State University Board of Trustees | Brianna Scott and Kelly Tebay Zemke vs Julie Maday and Roger Victory · Zemke is the incumbent | Safe D | D +17.2 | 100% | |
| Michigan · State Board of Education | Judith Pritchett and Tiffany Tilley vs Terence Collins and Bree Moeggenberg · Tilley is the incumbent | Safe D | D +17.2 | 100% |
Supreme court
12 races| State | Nominees | Rating | Model | Dem win | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio · Seat held by Daniel R. Hawkins | Marilyn Zayas vs Daniel R. Hawkins · Hawkins is the incumbent | Toss up | R +0.6 | 46% | |
| Texas · Place 3 | Okey Anyiam vs Thomas Smith | Toss up | D +0.9 | 57% | |
| Texas · Place 9 | Holly Taylor vs John Messinger | Toss up | D +1.0 | 57% | |
| Texas · Chief Justice | Maggie Ellis vs Jimmy Blacklock · Blacklock is the incumbent | Toss up | R +2.0 | 36% | |
| Texas · Place 4 | Audra Riley vs Kevin Yeary · Yeary is the incumbent | Toss up | R +2.0 | 36% | |
| Texas · Place 2 | Chari Kelly vs James Sullivan · Sullivan is the incumbent | Toss up | R +2.0 | 36% | |
| Texas · Place 7 | Kristen Hawkins vs Kyle Hawkins · Hawkins is the incumbent | Toss up | R +2.0 | 36% | |
| Texas · Place 8 | Gisela Triana vs Brett Busby · Busby is the incumbent | Toss up | R +2.0 | 36% | |
| Ohio · Seat held by Jennifer Brunner | Jennifer Brunner vs Colleen O'Donnell · Brunner is the incumbent | Lean D | D +5.5 | 83% | |
| North Carolina | Anita Earls vs Sarah Stevens · Earls is the incumbent | Safe D | D +13.3 | 100% | 6 |
| Alabama · Place 8 | AshLeigh Dunham vs Greg Shaw · Shaw is the incumbent | Safe R | R +30.7 | 0% | |
| Alabama · Place 7 | Brad Mendheim runs without a Democratic opponent | Uncontested |
How these are built
Each race starts from the state's own 2026 Senate and governor county forecasts, the ticket it shares a ballot with, and adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup party identification leg, the state's down ballot results from 2014, 2018 and 2022, and this year's primary vote for the office. Incumbency, primary unity and polls move each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. Few of these races are polled, so primaries count for more than they do for the Senate and governor. Methodology.