2026 forecast
Georgia Secretary Of State forecast
Penny Brown Reynolds vs Tim Fleming, an open seat. The model has Reynolds ahead by 5.5 points, with a 83 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
159 counties ยท 33 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +5.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +4.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +5.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +5.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +12.9 and R +1.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Reynolds | Fleming | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||