2026 forecast
Nevada Attorney General forecast
Nicole Cannizzaro vs Adriana Guzmán Fralick, an open seat. The model has Cannizzaro ahead by 7.2 points, with a 87 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
17 counties · 2 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +4.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +14.5 |
| Blend of every leg | D +7.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +7.2 |
| With polls, 17% weight | D +7.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.2 and R +0.8.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Cannizzaro | Fralick | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights (Nevada Public Opinion Pulse) | 708 LV | 2026-09-26 | 45 | 37 | D +8.0 |