2026 forecast
California Secretary Of State forecast
Shirley Weber vs Don Wagner, with Shirley Weber running again. The model has Weber ahead by 28.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
58 counties · 32 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +23.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +32.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +25.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +28.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +28.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +36.0 and D +20.6.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Weber | Wagner | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||