2026 forecast
Wisconsin Attorney General forecast
Josh Kaul vs Eric Toney, with Josh Kaul running again. The model has Kaul ahead by 9.6 points, with a 91 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
72 counties · 21 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +2.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +9.7 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +9.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +18.7 and D +0.4.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Kaul | Toney | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||