2026 forecast
Kansas Senate forecast
Adam Hamilton vs Roger Marshall. The model has Marshall ahead by 0.2 points, winning 52 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
105 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +7.3 and R +7.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +1.5 | |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 3d | D +1.0 |
| GBAO (D) | 600 LV | 9d | D +3.4 |
| GBAO for Hamilton (D) | 600 LV | 9d | D +3.5 |
| YouGov | 2,255 LV | 9d | D +2.1 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,095 LV | 12d | D +2.0 |
| New York Times/Siena | 605 LV | 13d | R +0.3 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 500 LV | 19d | D +2.7 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 750 LV | 27d | D +3.2 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 27d | D +2.1 |
| co/efficient (R) | 915 LV | 33d | R +1.0 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 58d | R +0.8 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 569 LV | 66d | R +2.2 |
| GBAO (D) | 600 LV | 92d | R +5.5 |
| Tavern Research (D) | 1,013 LV | 258d | R +9.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Hamilton | Marshall |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 44.1 | 53.2 |
| Women | 53% | 52.6 | 44.7 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 53.2 | 44.0 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 48.3 | 49.0 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 46.3 | 51.0 |
| 65+ | 30% | 48.8 | 48.5 |
| RaceWhite | 83% | 43.8 | 53.5 |
| Black | 5% | 85.7 | 11.6 |
| Latino | 7% | 61.7 | 35.5 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 73.1 | 23.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 39% | 38.2 | 59.1 |
| White women | 44% | 48.7 | 48.6 |
| Black men | 2% | 83.2 | 14.1 |
| Black women | 3% | 88.0 | 9.3 |
| Latino men | 3% | 59.4 | 37.7 |
| Latino women | 3% | 64.1 | 33.2 |
| All other races | 5% | 73.1 | 23.8 |