2026 forecast
Georgia Governor forecast
Keisha Lance Bottoms vs Rick Jackson, an open seat. The model has Bottoms ahead by 3.0 points, winning 73 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
159 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.6 and R +3.7. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +1.5 | |
| Wedgewood Polls | 600 LV | 10d | R +1.3 |
| Big Data Poll (R) | 678 LV | 20d | D +0.5 |
| Big Data Poll | 678 LV | 20d | R +2.4 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 1,200 LV | 20d | R +0.2 |
| YouGov | 3,299 LV | 25d | R +2.9 |
| Rasmussen Reports (R) | 1,019 LV | 29d | R +1.7 |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) | 800 LV | 57d | D +1.7 |
| Quantus Insights | 815 LV | 73d | D +2.7 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 1,060 LV | 89d | D +1.6 |
| State Navigate | 448 LV | 92d | D +5.6 |
| Wick | 1,175 LV | 105d | D +0.4 |
| Beacon Research and Shaw & Co. Research bipartisan | 1,002 RV | 108d | D +4.7 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners (D) | 510 LV | 133d | D +12.2 |
| Echelon Insights (R) | 407 LV | 187d | D +7.4 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Bottoms | Jackson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 46.7 | 51.9 |
| Women | 53% | 54.5 | 44.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 51.4 | 47.2 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 50.1 | 48.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 35% | 50.8 | 47.8 |
| 65+ | 27% | 51.1 | 47.5 |
| RaceWhite | 58% | 31.6 | 66.9 |
| Black | 32% | 82.1 | 16.7 |
| Latino | 5% | 55.4 | 43.1 |
| Asian and other | 6% | 67.7 | 30.6 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 27% | 26.4 | 72.1 |
| White women | 31% | 36.1 | 62.4 |
| Black men | 15% | 77.8 | 21.0 |
| Black women | 17% | 85.8 | 12.9 |
| Latino men | 3% | 54.6 | 43.9 |
| Latino women | 3% | 56.1 | 42.4 |
| All other races | 6% | 67.7 | 30.6 |