2026 forecast
Nevada State Controller forecast
Michael MacDougall vs Andy Matthews, with Andy Matthews running again. The model has MacDougall ahead by 3.9 points, with a 72 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
17 counties · 2 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +4.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +12.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +7.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +4.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +3.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +12.3 and R +4.6.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | MacDougall | Matthews | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||