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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

State legislatures forecast

All 87 partisan chambers on the 2026 ballot, 6,143 seats in 5,717 districts, forecast one district at a time. Democrats are favored to control 44 chambers and hold a majority in 31 today; Republicans hold 51.

Updated October 17, 2026Chambers 87Seats up 6,143Simulations 2,000
Expected Democratic chambers
43.1
Out of 87, 31 today
Favored to flip to Democrats
13
Alaska House, Arizona House, Arizona Senate, Maine House and more
Favored to flip to Republicans
1
West Virginia Senate
Chambers in play
7
Between 8% and 92% for either party

Every district on the 2026 ballot

Hover a district · click to open its chamber
4,962 seats up in 45 chambers2,635 favor Democrats436 flip to D9 flip to R
Drawing every state house district
Democrats favoredRepublicans favoredNot up in 2026 or no partisan race · District shapes are estimated from where each district's voters are

Control by state

Senate left · House right
Alaska Senate: Democrats 0% to controlAlaska House: Democrats 74% to controlAKMaine Senate: Democrats 100% to controlMaine House: Democrats 99% to controlMEVermont Senate: Democrats 100% to controlVermont House: Democrats 100% to controlVTNew Hampshire Senate: Democrats 93% to controlNew Hampshire House: Democrats 99% to controlNHWashington Senate: Democrats 100% to controlWashington House: Democrats 100% to controlWAIdaho Senate: Democrats 0% to controlIdaho House: Democrats 0% to controlIDMontana Senate: Democrats 0% to controlMontana House: Democrats 0% to controlMTNorth Dakota Senate: Democrats 0% to controlNorth Dakota House: Democrats 0% to controlNDMinnesota Senate: Democrats 100% to controlMinnesota House: Democrats 100% to controlMNIllinois Senate: Democrats 100% to controlIllinois House: Democrats 100% to controlILWisconsin Senate: Democrats 97% to controlWisconsin Assembly: Democrats 69% to controlWIMichigan Senate: Democrats 96% to controlMichigan House: Democrats 96% to controlMINew York Senate: Democrats 100% to controlNew York Assembly: Democrats 100% to controlNYRhode Island Senate: Democrats 100% to controlRhode Island House: Democrats 100% to controlRIMassachusetts Senate: Democrats 100% to controlMassachusetts House: Democrats 100% to controlMAOregon Senate: Democrats 100% to controlOregon House: Democrats 100% to controlORNevada Senate: Democrats 100% to controlNevada Assembly: Democrats 100% to controlNVWyoming Senate: Democrats 0% to controlWyoming House: Democrats 0% to controlWYSouth Dakota Senate: Democrats 0% to controlSouth Dakota House: Democrats 0% to controlSDIowa Senate: Democrats 0% to controlIowa House: Democrats 5% to controlIAIndiana Senate: Democrats 0% to controlIndiana House: Democrats 0% to controlINOhio Senate: Democrats 0% to controlOhio House: Democrats 2% to controlOHPennsylvania Senate: Democrats 5% to controlPennsylvania House: Democrats 95% to controlPANJ Senate: no partisan election in 2026NJ House: no partisan election in 2026NJConnecticut Senate: Democrats 100% to controlConnecticut House: Democrats 100% to controlCTCalifornia Senate: Democrats 100% to controlCalifornia Assembly: Democrats 100% to controlCAUtah Senate: Democrats 0% to controlUtah House: Democrats 0% to controlUTColorado Senate: Democrats 100% to controlColorado House: Democrats 100% to controlCONE Senate: no partisan election in 2026NE House: no partisan election in 2026NEMissouri Senate: Democrats 0% to controlMissouri House: Democrats 0% to controlMOKentucky Senate: Democrats 0% to controlKentucky House: Democrats 0% to controlKYWest Virginia Senate: Democrats 0% to controlWest Virginia House of Delegates: Democrats 0% to controlWVVA Senate: no partisan election in 2026VA House: no partisan election in 2026VAMaryland Senate: Democrats 100% to controlMaryland House of Delegates: Democrats 100% to controlMDDelaware Senate: Democrats 100% to controlDelaware House: Democrats 100% to controlDEArizona Senate: Democrats 94% to controlArizona House: Democrats 62% to controlAZNM Senate: no partisan election in 2026New Mexico House: Democrats 100% to controlNMKS Senate: no partisan election in 2026Kansas House: Democrats 3% to controlKSArkansas Senate: Democrats 0% to controlArkansas House: Democrats 0% to controlARTennessee Senate: Democrats 0% to controlTennessee House: Democrats 0% to controlTNNorth Carolina Senate: Democrats 15% to controlNorth Carolina House: Democrats 51% to controlNCSC Senate: no partisan election in 2026South Carolina House: Democrats 0% to controlSCOklahoma Senate: Democrats 0% to controlOklahoma House: Democrats 0% to controlOKLA Senate: no partisan election in 2026LA House: no partisan election in 2026LAMS Senate: no partisan election in 2026MS House: no partisan election in 2026MSAlabama Senate: Democrats 0% to controlAlabama House: Democrats 0% to controlALGeorgia Senate: Democrats 3% to controlGeorgia House: Democrats 31% to controlGAHawaii Senate: Democrats 100% to controlHawaii House: Democrats 100% to controlHITexas Senate: Democrats 0% to controlTexas House: Democrats 18% to controlTXFlorida Senate: Democrats 0% to controlFlorida House: Democrats 0% to controlFL
Safe DLikely DLean DToss upLean RLikely RSafe RNot up

Chambers in play

North Carolina House

Toss up
51%control40%
Average 61 D to 59 R · R majority today

Arizona House

Lean D
62%control19%
Average 31 D to 29 R · R majority today

Wisconsin Assembly

Lean D
69%control31%
Average 51 D to 48 R · R majority today

Georgia House

Lean R
31%control61%
Average 89 D to 91 R · R majority today

Alaska House

Lean D
74%control11%
Average 17 D to 19 R · R majority today

Texas House

Likely R
18%control78%
Average 71 D to 79 R · R majority today

North Carolina Senate

Likely R
15%control71%
Average 24 D to 26 R · R majority today

Every chamber

87 chambers
ChamberTodayControl oddsDem controlAvg seatsUp
Alabama SenateGOP 27
<1%9 / 2635 of 35
Alabama HouseGOP 77
<1%30 / 75105 of 105
Alaska SenateGOP 11
<1%9 / 1110 of 20
Alaska HouseGOP 21
74%17 / 1940 of 40
Arizona SenateGOP 17
94%18 / 1230 of 30
Arizona HouseGOP 34
62%31 / 2960 of 60
Arkansas SenateGOP 29
<1%7 / 2817 of 35
Arkansas HouseGOP 81
<1%24 / 76100 of 100
California SenateDem 31
>99%33 / 720 of 40
California AssemblyDem 60
>99%68 / 1280 of 80
Colorado SenateDem 23
>99%23 / 1221 of 35
Colorado HouseDem 43
>99%48 / 1765 of 65
Connecticut SenateDem 25
>99%34 / 236 of 36
Connecticut HouseDem 102
>99%131 / 20151 of 151
Delaware SenateDem 15
>99%15 / 611 of 21
Delaware HouseDem 27
>99%31 / 1041 of 41
Florida SenateGOP 24
<1%12 / 2820 of 40
Florida HouseGOP 85
<1%42 / 78120 of 120
Georgia SenateGOP 33
3%25 / 3156 of 56
Georgia HouseGOP 100
31%89 / 91180 of 180
Hawaii SenateDem 20
>99%23 / 217 of 25
Hawaii HouseDem 41
>99%48 / 351 of 51
Idaho SenateGOP 29
<1%7 / 2935 of 35
Idaho HouseGOP 61
<1%12 / 5970 of 70
Illinois SenateDem 39
>99%46 / 1339 of 59
Illinois HouseDem 78
>99%89 / 29118 of 118
Indiana SenateGOP 37
<1%11 / 3925 of 50
Indiana HouseGOP 70
<1%35 / 65100 of 100
Iowa SenateGOP 35
<1%19 / 3225 of 50
Iowa HouseGOP 66
5%43 / 57100 of 100
Kansas HouseGOP 88
3%54 / 71125 of 125
Kentucky SenateGOP 31
<1%7 / 3119 of 38
Kentucky HouseGOP 80
<1%23 / 77100 of 100
Maine SenateDem 20
>99%23 / 1235 of 35
Maine HouseSplit
99%90 / 60151 of 151
Maryland SenateDem 34
>99%37 / 1047 of 47
Maryland House of DelegatesDem 102
>99%108 / 33141 of 141
Massachusetts SenateDem 35
>99%35 / 540 of 40
Massachusetts HouseDem 134
>99%144 / 15160 of 160
Michigan SenateDem 20
96%22 / 1638 of 38
Michigan HouseGOP 58
96%63 / 47110 of 110
Minnesota SenateDem 34
>99%42 / 2567 of 67
Minnesota HouseSplit
>99%83 / 51134 of 134
Missouri SenateGOP 24
<1%11 / 2317 of 34
Missouri HouseGOP 111
<1%64 / 99163 of 163
Montana SenateGOP 27
<1%20 / 3025 of 50
Montana HouseGOP 58
<1%44 / 56100 of 100
Nevada SenateDem 13
>99%13 / 811 of 21
Nevada AssemblyDem 27
>99%32 / 1042 of 42
New Hampshire SenateGOP 16
93%17 / 724 of 24
New Hampshire HouseGOP 221
>99%257 / 143400 of 400
New Mexico HouseDem 45
>99%47 / 2370 of 70
New York SenateDem 41
>99%51 / 1263 of 63
New York AssemblyDem 103
>99%115 / 36150 of 150
North Carolina SenateGOP 30
15%24 / 2650 of 50
North Carolina HouseGOP 71
51%61 / 59120 of 120
North Dakota SenateGOP 43
<1%8 / 3924 of 47
North Dakota HouseGOP 83
<1%12 / 8250 of 94
Ohio SenateGOP 24
<1%12 / 2117 of 33
Ohio HouseGOP 65
2%43 / 5699 of 99
Oklahoma SenateGOP 28
<1%1 / 4724 of 48
Oklahoma HouseGOP 69
<1%28 / 73101 of 101
Oregon SenateDem 18
>99%20 / 1015 of 30
Oregon HouseDem 32
>99%39 / 2160 of 60
Pennsylvania SenateGOP 28
5%23 / 2725 of 50
Pennsylvania HouseSplit
95%109 / 94203 of 203
Rhode Island SenateDem 34
>99%36 / 338 of 38
Rhode Island HouseDem 64
>99%67 / 875 of 75
South Carolina HouseGOP 88
<1%43 / 81124 of 124
South Dakota SenateGOP 32
<1%6 / 2935 of 35
South Dakota HouseGOP 64
<1%10 / 5870 of 70
Tennessee SenateGOP 27
<1%6 / 2717 of 33
Tennessee HouseGOP 75
<1%26 / 7399 of 99
Texas SenateGOP 16
<1%10 / 2116 of 31
Texas HouseGOP 88
18%71 / 79150 of 150
Utah SenateGOP 23
<1%6 / 2315 of 29
Utah HouseGOP 61
<1%23 / 5275 of 75
Vermont SenateSplit
>99%23 / 730 of 30
Vermont HouseDem 86
>99%110 / 36150 of 150
Washington SenateDem 29
>99%32 / 1824 of 49
Washington HouseDem 59
>99%70 / 2998 of 98
West Virginia SenateSplit
<1%16 / 1834 of 34
West Virginia House of DelegatesGOP 91
<1%13 / 88100 of 100
Wisconsin SenateGOP 18
97%18 / 1517 of 33
Wisconsin AssemblyGOP 54
69%51 / 4899 of 99
Wyoming SenateGOP 28
<1%2 / 2817 of 31
Wyoming HouseGOP 56
<1%8 / 5462 of 62
Not on the ballot
Nebraska's legislature is nonpartisan, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia elect their legislatures in odd years, and the Kansas, New Mexico and South Carolina senates are next elected in 2028. Seats in staggered senates that are not up this year keep the party that won them in 2024.