2026 forecast
Iowa Attorney General forecast
Nate Willems vs Brenna Bird, with Brenna Bird running again. The model has Willems ahead by 5.9 points, with a 84 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
99 counties · 19 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +13.8 |
| Blend of every leg | D +9.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +6.4 |
| With polls, 12% weight | D +5.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +13.6 and R +1.8.
Polls of the race
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Willems | Bird | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R) | 500 LV | 2026-09-11 | 40 | 40 | R +0.0 |
| Cygnal (R) | 600 LV | 2026-06-19 | 39 | 44 | R +5.0 |