2026 forecast
Arizona Treasurer forecast
Nick Mansour vs Elijah Norton, an open seat. The model has Mansour ahead by 10.0 points, with a 96 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
15 counties · 5 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +9.7 |
| Blend of every leg | D +12.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +12.3 |
| With polls, 34% weight | D +10.0 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +17.4 and D +2.6.
Polls of the race
4 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mansour | Norton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-10-08 | 44.5 | 35.3 | D +9.2 |
| HighGround Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-08-18 | 41.8 | 39 | D +2.8 |
| Grayhouse (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-13 | 39 | 41 | R +2.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 35 | 39 | R +4.0 |