2026 forecast

California Lieutenant Governor forecast

Fiona Ma vs Gloria Romero, an open seat. The model has Ma ahead by 24.4 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +24.4Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

58 counties · 30 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, governor	D +23.6
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	D +29.4
Blend of every leg	D +24.7
With incumbency and primary unity	D +24.7
With polls, none in the race	D +24.4

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +32.1 and D +16.8.

Polls of the race

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Ma	Romero	Margin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.