2026 forecast
Arkansas Secretary Of State forecast
Kelly Grappe vs Kim Hammer, an open seat. The model has Hammer ahead by 19.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
75 counties · 10 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +17.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +20.3 |
| Blend of every leg | R +17.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +21.2 |
| With polls, 8% weight | R +19.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +11.1 and R +28.0.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Grappe | Hammer | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talk Business & Politics / Hendrix College | 1,217 LV | 2026-08-12 | 40 | 43 | R +3.0 |