2026 forecast
Minnesota Auditor forecast
Zack Filipovich vs Scott Jensen, an open seat. The model has Filipovich ahead by 7.6 points, with a 92 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
87 counties · 11 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +12.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +14.5 |
| Blend of every leg | D +15.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +15.0 |
| With polls, 44% weight | D +7.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +14.5 and D +0.8.
Polls of the race
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Filipovich | Jensen | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 718 LV | 2026-10-12 | 41 | 40 | D +1.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 654 LV | 2026-09-14 | 36 | 43 | R +7.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 661 LV | 2026-08-17 | 39 | 39 | R +0.0 |