2026 forecast
Indiana Secretary Of State forecast
Beau Bayh vs Max Engling, an open seat. The model has Engling ahead by 1.1 points, with a 57 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
92 counties · 13 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket | R +9.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +6.4 |
| Blend of every leg | R +8.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +8.2 |
| With polls, 52% weight | R +1.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +6.6 and R +8.9.
Polls of the race
3 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Bayh | Engling | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellwether Research for Free Press Indiana | 839 LV | 2026-10-11 | 43 | 35 | D +8.0 |
| The Tarrance Group (R) for Hoosier Leadership for America (R) | 600 LV | 2026-09-30 | 37 | 38 | R +1.0 |
| Schoen Cooperman Research (D) for Bayh campaign (D) | 605 LV | 2026-09-03 | 42 | 36 | D +6.0 |