2026 forecast
Kansas Attorney General forecast
Chris Mann vs Kris Kobach, with Kris Kobach running again. The model has Kobach ahead by 1.1 points, with a 56 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
105 counties · 6 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +8.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +2.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +0.9 |
| With polls, 14% weight | R +1.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +7.4 and R +9.5.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mann | Kobach | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group (D) for Democratic Attorneys General Association (D) | 2026-10-01 | 47 | 46 | D +1.0 |