2026 forecast
Minnesota Attorney General forecast
Keith Ellison vs Ron Schutz, with Keith Ellison running again. The model has Ellison ahead by 8.6 points, with a 96 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
87 counties · 12 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +12.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +14.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +14.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +17.9 |
| With polls, 65% weight | D +8.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +15.0 and D +2.3.
Polls of the race
7 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Ellison | Schutz | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 718 LV | 2026-10-12 | 45 | 44 | D +1.0 |
| Mason-Dixon for Star Tribune / KARE 11 (Minnesota Poll) | LV | 2026-10-07 | 48 | 40 | D +8.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 654 LV | 2026-09-14 | 43 | 45 | R +2.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 661 LV | 2026-08-17 | 43 | 43 | R +0.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 1,435 LV | 2026-08-04 | 44 | 36 | D +8.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 1,387 LV | 2026-07-20 | 42 | 38 | D +4.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 1,440 LV | 2026-06-16 | 44 | 37 | D +7.0 |