2026 forecast
Florida Treasurer forecast
Annette Taddeo vs Blaise Ingoglia, with Blaise Ingoglia running again. The model has Ingoglia ahead by 3.2 points, with a 73 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
67 counties · 12 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +6.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +3.0 |
| Blend of every leg | R +4.0 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +5.9 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +3.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +3.6 and R +10.1.
Polls of the race
5 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Taddeo | Ingoglia | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 836 LV | 2026-10-07 | 42 | 44 | R +2.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (R-leaning think tank) | 853 LV | 2026-10-04 | 43 | 43 | R +0.0 |
| Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (R-leaning think tank) | 1,166 RV | 2026-10-04 | 38 | 40 | R +2.0 |
| SEA Polling (D) | 701 LV | 2026-09-13 | 42 | 42 | R +0.0 |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA (listed as D on Wikipedia) | 1,107 LV | 2026-09-09 | 44 | 44 | R +0.0 |