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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Vermont Treasurer forecast

Mike Pieciak vs Lynn LaFleur, with Mike Pieciak running again. The model has Pieciak ahead by 12.4 points, with a 96 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +12.4Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

14 counties · 8 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorR +9.4
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +41.9
Blend of every legD +9.7
With incumbency and primary unityD +13.0
With polls, none in the raceD +12.4

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +21.5 and D +3.4.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedPieciakLaFleurMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.