2026 forecast
Oklahoma Commissioner Of Labor forecast
Kevin Dawson vs Kevin West, an open seat. The model has West ahead by 22.0 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
77 counties · 1 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +29.5 |
| Blend of every leg | R +22.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +22.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +22.0 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +12.9 and R +31.0.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Dawson | West | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||