2026 forecast
Alabama Auditor forecast
Violet Edwards vs Andrew Sorrell, with Andrew Sorrell running again. The model has Sorrell ahead by 32.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
67 counties · 11 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.9 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +56.0 |
| Blend of every leg | R +30.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +33.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +32.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +23.9 and R +41.6.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Edwards | Sorrell | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||