2026 forecast
Oklahoma Lieutenant Governor forecast
Kelly Forbes vs T. W. Shannon, an open seat. The model has Shannon ahead by 20.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
77 counties · 1 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +20.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +26.2 |
| Blend of every leg | R +21.7 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +21.7 |
| With polls, 4% weight | R +20.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +11.9 and R +29.9.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Forbes | Shannon | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHS & Associates (R) | 500 RV | 2026-08-06 | 34 | 51 | R +17.0 |