2026 forecast
Nebraska Governor forecast
Lynne Walz vs Jim Pillen. The model has Pillen ahead by 5.8 points, winning 86 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
93 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +1.0 and R +12.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | R +1.8 | |
| National Public Affairs | 800 LV | 8d | R +2.7 |
| YouGov | 1,809 LV | 10d | R +1.8 |
| co/efficient (R) | 1,113 LV | 13d | R +1.5 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 500 LV | 27d | R +16.4 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 600 RV | 29d | R +1.6 |
| SurveyUSA | 503 LV | 30d | R +8.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 559 RV | 41d | R +1.7 |
| Lake Research Partners (D) | 900 LV | 167d | R +4.1 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 670 RV | 189d | R +5.7 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Walz | Pillen |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 38.6 | 53.2 |
| Women | 53% | 47.0 | 44.8 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 48.1 | 43.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 43.5 | 48.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 40.8 | 51.1 |
| 65+ | 29% | 42.4 | 49.4 |
| RaceWhite | 86% | 39.1 | 52.7 |
| Black | 4% | 83.6 | 8.9 |
| Latino | 6% | 56.3 | 35.4 |
| Asian and other | 4% | 67.9 | 22.9 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 40% | 33.9 | 58.1 |
| White women | 46% | 43.7 | 48.0 |
| Black men | 2% | 81.6 | 10.9 |
| Black women | 2% | 85.5 | 7.1 |
| Latino men | 3% | 54.3 | 37.2 |
| Latino women | 3% | 58.4 | 33.7 |
| All other races | 4% | 67.9 | 22.9 |