2026 forecast
Minnesota Secretary Of State forecast
Steve Simon vs Tad Jude, with Steve Simon running again. The model has Simon ahead by 14.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
87 counties · 19 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +12.6 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +17.7 |
| Blend of every leg | D +15.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +18.9 |
| With polls, 31% weight | D +14.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +21.9 and D +7.6.
Polls of the race
2 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Simon | Jude | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 718 LV | 2026-10-12 | 43 | 37 | D +6.0 |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP | 661 LV | 2026-08-17 | 41 | 34 | D +7.0 |