2026 forecast

Texas Judge, Court Of Criminal Appeals, Place 4 forecast

Audra Riley vs Kevin Yeary, with Kevin Yeary running again. The model has Yeary ahead by 2.0 points, with a 64 percent chance of winning.

Toss upModel R +2.0Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

254 counties · 26 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, Senate and governor	R +0.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	D +0.6
Blend of every leg	D +1.0
With incumbency and primary unity	R +2.0
With polls, none in the race	R +2.0

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.2 and R +9.2.

Polls of the race

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Riley	Yeary	Margin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.

Model margin

Yeary +2.0

Chance of winning

Audra Riley36%

Kevin Yeary64%

Projected vote

Audra Riley47.5%

Kevin Yeary49.5%

Others and write ins3.0%

Down ballot Democratic share, two party

202243.9%

201847.1%

201439.1%

Other Texas statewide races

Agriculture commissionerR +2.1

Attorney generalR +1.1

Comptroller of Public AccountsR +4.8

Commissioner of the General Land OfficeR +4.2

Lieutenant governorR +4.0

Railroad commissionerR +0.6

Chief Justice, Supreme CourtR +2.0

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3D +0.9

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9D +1.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2R +2.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7R +2.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8R +2.0

Methodology

The county forecast starts from Texas's 2026 top of ticket and its past down ballot results, adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup leg and this year's primaries, then moves each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. All statewide races.