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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

South Carolina Secretary Of State forecast

Jason Belton vs Mark Hammond, with Mark Hammond running again. The model has Hammond ahead by 18.2 points, with a 99 percent chance of winning.

Safe RModel R +18.2Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

46 counties · 12 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorR +2.1
Down ballot history, moved to 2026R +41.3
Blend of every legR +15.2
With incumbency and primary unityR +18.4
With polls, none in the raceR +18.2

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +9.0 and R +27.4.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedBeltonHammondMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.