2026 forecast
Connecticut Treasurer forecast
Erick Russell vs Fred Wilms, with Erick Russell running again. The model has Russell ahead by 21.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
8 counties · 6 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +15.5 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +20.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +18.2 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +21.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +21.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +29.8 and D +12.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Russell | Wilms | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||