2026 forecast

Texas Commissioner Of The General Land Office forecast

Benjamin Flores vs Dawn Buckingham, with Dawn Buckingham running again. The model has Buckingham ahead by 4.2 points, with a 82 percent chance of winning.

Lean RModel R +4.2Polls R +5.9Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

254 counties · 23 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, Senate and governor	R +0.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	D +0.6
Blend of every leg	D +1.0
With incumbency and primary unity	R +2.0
With polls, 62% weight	R +4.2

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +1.6 and R +10.1.

Polls of the race

3 polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Flores	Buckingham	Margin
ActiVote	400 LV	2026-10-17	48.1	51.9	R +3.8
University of Houston Hobby School	2,000 LV	2026-10-14	40	47	R +7.0
Texas Southern University	1,200 LV	2026-07-30	40	45	R +5.0

Model margin

Buckingham +4.2

Chance of winning

Benjamin Flores18%

Dawn Buckingham82%

Projected vote

Benjamin Flores45.7%

Dawn Buckingham49.9%

Neill Snider4.5%

Down ballot Democratic share, two party

202243.9%

201847.1%

201439.1%

Other Texas statewide races

Agriculture commissionerR +2.1

Attorney generalR +1.1

Comptroller of Public AccountsR +4.8

Lieutenant governorR +4.0

Railroad commissionerR +0.6

Chief Justice, Supreme CourtR +2.0

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3D +0.9

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 4R +2.0

Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9D +1.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 2R +2.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 7R +2.0

Justice, Supreme Court, Place 8R +2.0

Methodology

The county forecast starts from Texas's 2026 top of ticket and its past down ballot results, adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup leg and this year's primaries, then moves each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. All statewide races.