2026 forecast
Idaho Secretary Of State forecast
Shawn Keenan vs Phil McGrane, with Phil McGrane running again. The model has McGrane ahead by 28.8 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
44 counties · 4 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +28.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +25.9 |
| Blend of every leg | R +26.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +29.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +28.8 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +20.8 and R +36.8.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Keenan | McGrane | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||