2026 forecast
Texas Senate forecast
James Talarico vs Ken Paxton. The model has Talarico ahead by 3.2 points, winning 73 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
254 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +9.8 and R +3.4. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | LOWESS Election Day projection | D +3.3 | |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,086 LV | 5d | D +4.1 |
| YouGov | 3,625 LV | 8d | D +5.1 |
| New York Times/Siena | 615 LV | 13d | D +5.6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 1,128 LV | 14d | D +0.5 |
| Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company | 881 LV | 15d | D +1.4 |
| Guidant Polling for Public First Action | 800 LV | 15d | D +2.7 |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | 850 LV | 15d | R +0.9 |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) | 800 LV | 16d | R +0.6 |
| Big Data Poll | 698 LV | 17d | D +2.2 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) | 856 LV | 19d | D +1.8 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 1,007 LV | 21d | D +3.6 |
| Marist University | 1,139 RV | 23d | D +3.5 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 24d | D +1.6 |
| Trafalgar Group (R) | 1,079 LV | 26d | D +2.1 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 29d | D +2.3 |
| SoCal Strategies | 649 LV | 30d | D +5.6 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 614 LV | 32d | D +5.7 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 625 LV | 33d | D +4.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 1,200 LV | 34d | D +1.0 |
| Univision/YouGov | 1,000 RV | 39d | D +4.4 |
| Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research bipartisan | 895 LV | 42d | D +3.6 |
| Overton Insights (R) | 1,167 LV | 48d | D +1.7 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research (D) | 1,000 LV | 50d | D +4.6 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 61d | D +3.7 |
| Emerson College | 1,000 LV | 64d | D +0.3 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Talarico | Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 49% | 46.6 | 50.8 |
| Women | 51% | 53.9 | 43.5 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 52.7 | 44.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 26% | 48.8 | 48.5 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 49.9 | 47.5 |
| 65+ | 25% | 50.8 | 46.7 |
| RaceWhite | 53% | 35.4 | 62.1 |
| Black | 14% | 79.0 | 18.5 |
| Latino | 27% | 60.2 | 37.0 |
| Asian and other | 7% | 69.8 | 27.1 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 26% | 29.8 | 67.7 |
| White women | 27% | 40.6 | 56.8 |
| Black men | 7% | 75.3 | 22.2 |
| Black women | 7% | 82.5 | 15.0 |
| Latino men | 14% | 57.4 | 39.8 |
| Latino women | 13% | 63.1 | 34.2 |
| All other races | 7% | 69.8 | 27.1 |