SearchThe Weighting Room
15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Indiana Auditor forecast

Jessica Bailey vs Elise Nieshalla, with Elise Nieshalla running again. The model has Nieshalla ahead by 8.2 points, with a 89 percent chance of winning.

Likely RModel R +8.2Polls D +1.8Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

92 counties · 7 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticketR +9.4
Down ballot history, moved to 2026R +9.4
Blend of every legR +9.1
With incumbency and primary unityR +12.2
With polls, 26% weightR +8.2

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +0.3 and R +16.6.

Polls of the race

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedBaileyNieshallaMargin
Bellwether Research for Free Press Indiana839 LV2026-10-113936D +3.0