2026 forecast
Kansas Governor forecast
Cindy Holscher vs Ty Masterson, an open seat. The model has Masterson ahead by 0.3 points, winning 53 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
105 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +7.6 and R +8.2. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | R +2.6 | |
| YouGov | 2,255 LV | 9d | R +3.9 |
| New York Times/Siena College | 605 LV | 13d | R +5.4 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 500 LV | 19d | R +3.3 |
| Emerson College / Nexstar | 750 LV | 27d | R +5.7 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 800 LV | 27d | D +1.0 |
| co/efficient (R) | 915 LV | 33d | R +3.9 |
| Global Strategy Group (D) | 600 LV | 58d | R +1.0 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Holscher | Masterson |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 47% | 44.2 | 53.8 |
| Women | 53% | 53.0 | 45.0 |
| Age18 to 29 | 16% | 53.7 | 44.3 |
| 30 to 44 | 23% | 48.4 | 49.7 |
| 45 to 64 | 32% | 46.5 | 51.6 |
| 65+ | 30% | 49.2 | 48.8 |
| RaceWhite | 83% | 43.8 | 54.2 |
| Black | 5% | 87.0 | 11.2 |
| Latino | 7% | 62.9 | 35.1 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 74.6 | 23.2 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 39% | 38.1 | 60.0 |
| White women | 44% | 48.9 | 49.1 |
| Black men | 2% | 84.5 | 13.6 |
| Black women | 3% | 89.2 | 9.0 |
| Latino men | 3% | 60.6 | 37.3 |
| Latino women | 3% | 65.2 | 32.8 |
| All other races | 5% | 74.6 | 23.2 |