2026 forecast
Wisconsin Governor forecast
David Crowley vs Tom Tiffany, an open seat. The model has Crowley ahead by 4.1 points, winning 76 percent of 10,000 simulated elections.
County simulation
72 countiesD +40R +40Hover a county for the simulated vote
Every simulated outcome
10,000 sims80 percent of simulations fall between D +12.0 and R +3.8. Negative margins are Democratic wins.
Polls of the race
Full average| Pollster | Sample | Age | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| OnPoint average | Weighted average | D +3.5 | |
| Z to A Research (D) | 662 LV | 12d | D +3.7 |
| Marquette University | 750 LV | 20d | D +3.0 |
| Marquette University | 738 LV | 54d | D +5.0 |
| TIPP Insights (R) | 1,199 LV | 56d | D +3.5 |
| Platform Communications (R) | 500 LV | 61d | D +5.5 |
Estimated vote by group
model crosstabs| Group | Share | Crowley | Tiffany |
|---|---|---|---|
| GenderMen | 46% | 46.5 | 51.7 |
| Women | 55% | 55.1 | 43.1 |
| Age18 to 29 | 15% | 56.6 | 41.5 |
| 30 to 44 | 21% | 51.7 | 46.4 |
| 45 to 64 | 34% | 47.5 | 50.6 |
| 65+ | 30% | 52.2 | 46.0 |
| RaceWhite | 87% | 46.8 | 51.3 |
| Black | 5% | 90.5 | 7.8 |
| Latino | 4% | 69.9 | 28.3 |
| Asian and other | 5% | 75.1 | 22.8 |
| Race and genderWhite men | 39% | 41.1 | 57.1 |
| White women | 48% | 51.5 | 46.7 |
| Black men | 2% | 89.4 | 8.9 |
| Black women | 3% | 91.5 | 6.8 |
| Latino men | 2% | 67.1 | 31.1 |
| Latino women | 2% | 72.6 | 25.6 |
| All other races | 5% | 75.1 | 22.8 |