2026 forecast

Michigan Wayne State University Board Of Governors forecast

Shereef Akeel and Richard Mack vs Andy Anuzis and Christa Murphy, an open seat. The model has Mack ahead by 14.2 points, with a 99 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +14.2Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

83 counties · 21 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, Senate and governor	D +10.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	D +22.0
Blend of every leg	D +14.9
With incumbency and primary unity	D +14.9
With polls, none in the race	D +14.2

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +21.8 and D +6.5.

Polls of the race

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Mack	Murphy	Margin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.

Model margin

Mack +14.2

Chance of winning

Shereef Akeel and Richard Mack99%

Andy Anuzis and Christa Murphy1%

Projected vote

Shereef Akeel and Richard Mack54.6%

Andy Anuzis and Christa Murphy40.4%

Alex Avery, Jami Van Alstine, Jeff McDonald, Paul M. Ragan, Suzanne Roehrig, Kathleen Oakford5.0%

Down ballot Democratic share, two party

202257.1%

201853%

201445.2%

Other Michigan statewide races

Attorney generalD +9.2

Michigan State University Board of TrusteesD +17.2

State Board of EducationD +17.2

University of Michigan Board of RegentsD +14.2

Secretary of stateD +10.4

Methodology

The county forecast starts from Michigan's 2026 top of ticket and its past down ballot results, adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup leg and this year's primaries, then moves each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. All statewide races.