Ballot measures forecast

Each measure is put in a policy group and given the side its Yes vote leans to. The group sets how the Yes share moves with a state's partisanship and with each county's 2024 presidential vote, measured on the statewide measures of 2018, 2022 and 2024 in the MIT Election Lab precinct returns, and how the measure reached the ballot moves it further: legislative referrals and bonds run ahead, citizen initiatives behind. Polls then pull each forecast toward them by their recency and size, with undecided voters breaking two to one for No, the usual late slide on ballot questions, and polls paid for by one side moved four points toward the other. The odds are the chance of clearing each state's own bar, from 60 percent in Florida to two thirds in New Hampshire and a majority of all ballots cast in Hawaii, Minnesota, Tennessee and Wyoming.