2026 forecast
Iowa Auditor forecast
Taylor Wettach vs Chris Cournoyer, an open seat. The model has Wettach ahead by 6.7 points, with a 86 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
99 counties · 19 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +6.4 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +4.1 |
| Blend of every leg | D +6.8 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +6.8 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +6.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +14.7 and R +1.3.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Wettach | Cournoyer | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||