2026 forecast
Arizona Secretary Of State forecast
Adrian Fontes vs Alexander Kolodin, with Adrian Fontes running again. The model has Fontes ahead by 11.7 points, with a 98 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
15 counties · 5 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | D +12.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +15.0 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +17.2 |
| With polls, 48% weight | D +11.7 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +18.7 and D +4.6.
Polls of the race
6 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Fontes | Kolodin | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equis Research | 1,214 RV | 2026-09-09 | 46 | 44 | D +2.0 |
| Arizona State University | 1,300 RV | 2026-09-04 | 39 | 35 | D +4.0 |
| HighGround, Inc. | 400 LV | 2026-08-18 | 43 | 35 | D +8.0 |
| Grayhouse (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-13 | 46 | 42 | D +4.0 |
| Stealth Analytics | 530 LV | 2026-08-13 | 39 | 38 | D +1.0 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 923 LV | 2026-08-13 | 41 | 35 | D +6.0 |