2026 forecast

Ohio Secretary Of State forecast

Allison Russo vs Robert Sprague, an open seat. The model has Russo ahead by 1.3 points, with a 59 percent chance of winning.

Toss upModel D +1.3Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

88 counties · 10 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, Senate and governor	D +4.1
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	R +3.4
Blend of every leg	D +2.2
With incumbency and primary unity	D +1.3
With polls, none in the race	D +1.3

Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +8.6 and R +6.1.

Polls of the race

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Russo	Sprague	Margin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.

Model margin

Russo +1.3

Chance of winning

Allison Russo59%

Robert Sprague41%

Projected vote

Allison Russo48.5%

Robert Sprague47.3%

Tom Pruss4.2%

2026 primaries

Democratic share of the two party primary vote48.3%

Russo in the primary67.4%

Sprague in the primary70.2%

Down ballot Democratic share, two party

202240.4%

201847.9%

201437.9%

Other Ohio statewide races

Attorney generalD +2.2

AuditorD +2.6

Justice of the Supreme Court, Seat held by Daniel R. HawkinsR +0.6

Justice of the Supreme Court, Seat held by Jennifer BrunnerD +5.5

TreasurerD +2.5

Methodology

The county forecast starts from Ohio's 2026 top of ticket and its past down ballot results, adds the approval fundamentals, a relaxed Gallup leg and this year's primaries, then moves each county by how loose its voters are in the ticket splitting model. All statewide races.