2026 forecast
Massachusetts Treasurer forecast
Deb Goldberg vs Elizabeth Dionne, with Deb Goldberg running again. The model has Goldberg ahead by 38.5 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
14 counties · 14 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +31.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +52.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +39.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +42.0 |
| With polls, 21% weight | D +38.5 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +46.2 and D +30.9.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Goldberg | Dionne | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UMass Amherst/WCVB/YouGov | 800 RV | 2026-10-12 | 52 | 27 | D +25.0 |