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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

Florida Agriculture Commissioner forecast

Joey Mendoza Atkins vs Wilton Simpson, with Wilton Simpson running again. The model has Simpson ahead by 10.4 points, with a 95 percent chance of winning.

Likely RModel R +10.4Polls R +11.8Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

67 counties · 10 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, Senate and governorR +6.2
Down ballot history, moved to 2026R +2.4
Blend of every legR +4.2
With incumbency and primary unityR +10.1
With polls, 22% weightR +10.4

Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +2.4 and R +18.3.

Polls of the race

1 poll
PollsterSampleEndedAtkinsSimpsonMargin
Targoz Market Research for James Madison Institute (conservative)852 LV2026-10-043950R +11.0