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15 DAYS OUT
NE GovPillen R +0.8GA GovBottoms D +0.8KS GovHolscher D +0.8KS SenMarshall R +1.3IA SenTurek D +1.4AK SenPeltola D +1.4SC SenAndrews D +1.5TX SenTalarico D +2.0TX GovAbbott R +2.2ME SenJackson D +2.5WI GovCrowley D +2.8NE SenOsborn I +3.4OH SenBrown D +3.8NV GovFord D +4.0OH GovActon D +4.7FL GovDonalds R +4.9
2026 forecast

California Treasurer forecast

Eleni Kounalakis vs Jennifer Hawks, an open seat. The model has Kounalakis ahead by 25.0 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.

Safe DModel D +25.0Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

58 counties · 31 lean Democratic
D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step
Top of ticket, governorD +23.6
Down ballot history, moved to 2026D +31.4
Blend of every legD +25.3
With incumbency and primary unityD +25.3
With polls, none in the raceD +25.0

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +32.7 and D +17.4.

Polls of the race

no polls
PollsterSampleEndedKounalakisHawksMargin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.