2026 forecast
Michigan Michigan State University Board Of Trustees forecast
Brianna Scott and Kelly Tebay Zemke vs Julie Maday and Roger Victory, with Brianna Scott; Kelly Tebay Zemke running again. The model has Zemke ahead by 17.2 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
83 counties · 25 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +10.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +22.0 |
| Blend of every leg | D +14.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +18.1 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +17.2 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +24.8 and D +9.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Zemke | Victory | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||