2026 forecast
Georgia Lieutenant Governor forecast
Josh McLaurin vs Greg Dolezal, an open seat. The model has McLaurin ahead by 5.9 points, with a 85 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
159 counties ยท 34 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +5.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +5.7 |
| Blend of every leg | D +5.9 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +6.0 |
| With polls, 3% weight | D +5.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +13.2 and R +1.4.
Polls of the race
1 poll| Pollster | Sample | Ended | McLaurin | Dolezal | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Navigate | 448 LV | 2026-07-13 | 48 | 44 | D +4.0 |