2026 forecast

Vermont Auditor forecast

Tim Ashe vs Ivar Kronick, an open seat. The model has Ashe ahead by 9.1 points, with a 90 percent chance of winning.

Likely DModel D +9.1Updated October 17, 2026

County forecast

14 counties · 7 lean Democratic

D +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote

How the model gets there

statewide margin at each step

Top of ticket, governor	R +9.4
Down ballot history, moved to 2026	D +40.7
Blend of every leg	D +9.3
With incumbency and primary unity	D +9.3
With polls, none in the race	D +9.1

Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +18.1 and D +0.0.

Polls of the race

no polls

Pollster	Sample	Ended	Ashe	Kronick	Margin
No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries.