2026 forecast
Texas Railroad Commissioner forecast
Jon Rosenthal vs Bo French, an open seat. The model has French ahead by 0.6 points, with a 55 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
254 counties ยท 29 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +1.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.5 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +0.5 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +0.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +5.2 and R +6.3.
Polls of the race
9 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Rosenthal | French | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-17 | 47.9 | 52.1 | R +4.2 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 2026-10-14 | 43 | 45 | R +2.0 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 47 | 46 | D +1.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 47 | 46 | D +1.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R) | 865 LV | 2026-09-24 | 44 | 46 | R +2.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 2026-09-22 | 44 | 45 | R +1.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 2026-09-19 | 42 | 44 | R +2.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 2026-08-24 | 41 | 45 | R +4.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | 2026-07-30 | 41 | 44 | R +3.0 |