2026 forecast
Idaho Superintendent Of Public Instruction forecast
Becky Sundin Mitchell vs Debbie Critchfield, with Debbie Critchfield running again. The model has Critchfield ahead by 27.6 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
44 counties · 4 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, governor | R +28.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | R +23.1 |
| Blend of every leg | R +25.3 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | R +28.3 |
| With polls, none in the race | R +27.6 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between R +19.6 and R +35.6.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Mitchell | Critchfield | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||