2026 forecast
New Mexico Attorney General forecast
Raúl Torrez vs Sam Kane, with Raúl Torrez running again. The model has Torrez ahead by 25.9 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
33 counties · 18 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | D +22.1 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +26.2 |
| Blend of every leg | D +23.4 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +26.4 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +25.9 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +34.6 and D +17.3.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Torrez | Kane | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||