2026 forecast
Texas Attorney General forecast
Nathan Johnson vs Mayes Middleton, an open seat. The model has Middleton ahead by 1.1 points, with a 59 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
254 counties ยท 28 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate and governor | R +0.2 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +1.6 |
| Blend of every leg | D +0.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +2.0 |
| With polls, 65% weight | R +1.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 30%, Approval fundamentals 15%, Gallup, relaxed 10%, Down ballot history 25%, 2026 primaries 20%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +4.7 and R +6.8.
Polls of the race
15 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Johnson | Middleton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 400 LV | 2026-10-17 | 47.1 | 52.9 | R +5.8 |
| University of Houston Hobby School | 2,000 LV | 2026-10-14 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| University of Texas / Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 47 | D +1.0 |
| University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | 861 LV | 2026-10-05 | 48 | 47 | D +1.0 |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority (R) | 865 LV | 2026-09-24 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,007 LV | 2026-09-22 | 43 | 46 | R +3.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,800 LV | 2026-09-19 | 42 | 47 | R +5.0 |
| ReconMR Texas Poll | 614 LV | 2026-09-11 | 44 | 45 | R +1.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,000 LV | 2026-08-24 | 41 | 44 | R +3.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 2026-08-13 | 35 | 40 | R +5.0 |
| Texas A&M / ReconMR / Siena | 619 LV | 2026-07-30 | 44 | 46 | R +2.0 |
| Texas Southern University | 1,200 LV | 2026-07-30 | 41 | 46 | R +5.0 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 1,048 LV | 2026-07-17 | 38 | 39 | R +1.0 |
| UT / Texas Politics Project | 1,200 RV | 2026-06-12 | 36 | 41 | R +5.0 |
| ReconMR / Texas A&M Texas Poll | 807 LV | 2026-06-04 | 40 | 45 | R +5.0 |