2026 forecast
North Carolina Associate Justice Of The Supreme Court, Seat 1 forecast
Anita Earls vs Sarah Stevens, with Anita Earls running again. The model has Earls ahead by 13.3 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
100 counties · 36 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate | D +11.9 |
| Blend of every leg | D +13.1 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +16.1 |
| With polls, 35% weight | D +13.3 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 55%, Approval fundamentals 27%, Gallup, relaxed 18%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +19.6 and D +6.9.
Polls of the race
6 polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | Earls | Stevens | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harper Polling (R) | 608 LV | 2026-09-15 | 47 | 36 | D +11.0 |
| YouGov | 660 LV | 2026-08-12 | 47 | 44 | D +3.0 |
| Harper Polling (R) | 600 LV | 2026-08-10 | 43 | 40 | D +3.0 |
| Change Research (D) | 967 LV | 2026-08-01 | 45 | 39 | D +6.0 |
| Public Policy Polling (D) | 759 LV | 2026-07-11 | 44 | 42 | D +2.0 |
| YouGov | 906 LV | 2026-06-10 | 40 | 35 | D +5.0 |