2026 forecast
Delaware Auditor forecast
Lydia York vs April Callaway, with Lydia York running again. The model has York ahead by 31.1 points, with a 100 percent chance of winning.
County forecast
3 counties · 3 lean DemocraticD +40R +40Hover a county for its projected vote
How the model gets there
statewide margin at each step| Top of ticket, Senate | D +29.8 |
| Down ballot history, moved to 2026 | D +21.4 |
| Blend of every leg | D +28.6 |
| With incumbency and primary unity | D +31.6 |
| With polls, none in the race | D +31.1 |
Leg weights: Top of ticket 38%, Approval fundamentals 19%, Gallup, relaxed 13%, Down ballot history 31%. 80 percent of outcomes fall between D +40.7 and D +21.5.
Polls of the race
no polls| Pollster | Sample | Ended | York | Callaway | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No public polls of this race. The forecast rests on the top of ticket, past results and the primaries. | |||||